Executive summary

Canopy's seller ask is difficult to justify on replacement cost; disciplined land acquisition remains the clearer value-creation path.

The sale-and-leaseback ask values the portfolio at PHP 1000M, or 2.06x the modeled land + construction base of PHP 486M. That creates PHP 514M of value above bricks-and-land replacement cost, a 106% premium before assigning credit to platform, speed-to-market, lease structure, or stabilized operating value.

Ask premium

+106%

PHP 514M above modeled land + build

EV / land + build

2.06x

PHP 1000M ask / PHP 486M cost base

Current land screen

+5.8%

PHP 203k ask/sqm vs PHP 192k benchmark/sqm

Below-benchmark leads

7 of 14

Public listings below assigned Canopy land benchmark

1. Price conclusion

The seller EV embeds a large premium to modeled replacement cost.

Canopy's five modeled sites carry PHP 188M of land and PHP 298M of construction cost. All-in modeled project cost is PHP 490M, so the PHP 1000M seller ask is also 2.04x modeled all-in cost and 104% above that broader cost base.

The implied seller EV is PHP 3.9M per seller unit versus PHP 1.9M modeled cost per Canopy unit. The underwriting burden is therefore not whether the assets can be rebuilt, but whether the platform economics justify paying for an operating portfolio at a large premium to replacement basis.

2. Market read

The external land market is bifurcated rather than uniformly expensive.

The current public listing set totals PHP 891M across 4,387 sqm. Weighted asking price is PHP 203k per sqm, only 5.8% above the assigned Canopy benchmark of PHP 192k per sqm, while 7 listings screen below benchmark.

The deepest apparent discount is Taguig/S.Cembo 198 at -66% vs benchmark, but it is also the highest diligence-risk screen. More repeatable value appears in South Cembo 326 (-33%), South Cembo 505 (-32%), and the same-street Agutaya lot lead (-0.5%).

3. Acquisition stance

Prioritize land-led control, not portfolio-wide premium payment.

The data supports a selective buy-zone: parcels that are buildable, close to the existing Canopy demand spine, and at or below the relevant Canopy land basis. South Cembo value screens create the clearest price support, while Agutaya provides the cleanest same-street strategic fit even without a deep discount.

Premium assets should clear a higher bar. EDSA/Gracia screens 85% above benchmark, so it needs a flagship, frontage, or income thesis rather than ordinary dormitory replacement-cost math.

Board-level implication

The acquisition decision should separate two questions: what Canopy's existing operating portfolio is worth as a leased platform, and what it would cost to recreate comparable capacity through targeted land buys. On the second question, the evidence is clear: modeled replacement cost is far below seller EV, and current land listings still contain enough below-benchmark inventory to justify continued direct sourcing.

Recommended next diligence

Validate cheap screens: pin, title, access, flood, tenant, and turnover risk for the low-priced South Cembo leads.

Lock same-street optionality: pursue Agutaya and Balabac-adjacent parcels where strategic fit can offset a tighter discount.

Challenge seller premium: require operating-value evidence for any price materially above modeled land + construction cost.

Investment dashboard

Canopy Land Acquisition Benchmark

Interactive benchmark of land leads near Canopy locations vs seller sale-and-leaseback ask.

Seller EV ask

PHP 1.0B

Sale-and-leaseback ask

Master lease

PHP 75.0M/year

Annual rent basis

Cap rate

7.5%

Implied by rent / EV

Seller units

255

Seller scenario

Implied EV/unit

PHP 3.9M

Based on 255 units

Portfolio land

PHP 180k

Weighted benchmark/sqm

Current land price screen

Land ask per sqm by property

Each bar is the public asking price divided by stated lot area. Green bars screen below their assigned Canopy benchmark; red bars screen above it. The amber line is the Canopy portfolio weighted land benchmark at PHP 180k per sqm.

Canopy weighted land

PHP 180k/sqm

Bottom line

Seller ask values Canopy at +106% above modeled land + construction cost.

The seller asks PHP 1000M for the sale-and-leaseback portfolio. The five modeled Canopy sites carry PHP 486M of land + construction cost: PHP 188M land and PHP 298M building. Including interest and contingency, modeled total project cost is PHP 490M.

Ask above land + build

PHP 514M

106% premium to modeled land + construction cost

Modeled cost/unit

PHP 1.9M

Across 253 Canopy modeled units

Seller EV/unit

PHP 3.9M

Based on 255 seller units

How this figure is derived

PHP 514M = PHP 1000M seller enterprise value minus PHP 486M modeled land + construction cost. Seller EV is extracted from Acquisition scenario - Sale & Leaseback v7.5cap (1).xlsx, sheet 7.5cap, row 20. Modeled land and construction costs are extracted from 260414 - CanopyOperatingModel - Existing Projects SHORT TERM updated (1).xlsx, sheets BalabacAssumptions, AgutayaAssumptions, GraciaAssumptions, GabongAssumptions, and ColSantosAssumptions, rows 71-72. Premium = PHP 514M / PHP 486M = 106%.

Against total modeled project cost including interest and contingency, the seller ask is PHP 510M higher, or 104% above cost.

What this page benchmarks

Land: Canopy modeled land cost per sqm vs current external land listing ask per sqm.
Building: Canopy modeled construction cost per built sqm. The external listings are land-only, so they do not provide building replacement-cost comps.
Portfolio ask: seller EV and EV/unit vs Canopy modeled project cost and cost/unit.

Seller EV/unit uses 255 sale-and-leaseback units. The Canopy operating model totals 253 modeled units across the five benchmark sites, so site pages use each location's own modeled unit count.

View Charts View Properties View Canopy Benchmarks View Sources

Land and building benchmark

Canopy modeled replacement basis vs current land market

View full charts

Canopy land basis

PHP 180k

PHP 188M across 1,041 sqm

Current land leads

PHP 203k

14 listings, 4,387 sqm total land

Current spread

5.8%

Weighted ask vs assigned Canopy land benchmarks

Canopy building basis

PHP 52k

PHP 298M across 5,704.32 sqm built area

Cost stack being benchmarked

LandPHP 188M · 38%

BuildingPHP 298M · 61%

InterestPHP 7.2M · 1.5%

ContingencyPHP -2.9M · -0.6%

How to read the current land screen

The current land set totals PHP 891M of asking price. On a weighted basis, those listings ask PHP 203k per sqm versus PHP 192k per sqm of assigned Canopy land benchmarks. 7 of 14 listings screen below their nearest Canopy benchmark.

Best current land read

Taguig / South Cembo 198 sqm bungalow

-66% vs benchmark

Richest current land read

EDSA / Gracia 595 sqm corner

85% vs benchmark

Site-level anchors

Canopy land and building costs by property

These are the exact modeled anchors used when a current land lead is assigned to Balabac, Agutaya, Gracia, Gabong, Col. Santos, or a weighted peer average.

Canopy site	Units	Land cost	Land/sqm	Building cost	Build/built sqm	Total cost/unit
Canopy Balabac Balabac · Active on Canopy site	45	PHP 33.1M	PHP 162k	PHP 53.0M	PHP 48k	PHP 1.9M
Canopy Agutaya Agutaya · Active on Canopy site	51	PHP 35.2M	PHP 172k	PHP 55.0M	PHP 50k	PHP 1.8M
Canopy Gracia Gracia · Active on Canopy site	55	PHP 44.4M	PHP 196k	PHP 61.0M	PHP 50k	PHP 1.9M
Canopy Gabong Gabong · Opening 2026 on Canopy site	41	PHP 29.5M	PHP 157k	PHP 52.2M	PHP 48k	PHP 2.0M
Canopy Col. Santos Col. Santos · Opening 2026 on Canopy site	61	PHP 45.5M	PHP 209k	PHP 76.7M	PHP 65k	PHP 2.0M